The load forecasting for power systems

Abstract

In this paper , I will talk about the forecasting of load in the power system. also The purpose of load forecasting and the various methods to predict pregnancy , Types of load forecasting in power system , Accurate Forecasting Factor of loads in power systems , Define both(Short-term forecasts - Long term forecasts - Medium forecasts) and Why do we need to forecast load ?

Introduction and Research Objectives

Worldwide, economic growth depends directly on the availability of electric energy , especially because most industries depend almost entirely on its use. The availability of a continuous, cheap and secure energy supply is of vital economic importance.

Load forecasting is often characterized, for a specified period of time ahead, as basically the science or art of predicting future load on a given system. Such forecasts may be for operational purposes only for a fraction of an hour forward, or for planning purposes as much as 20 years into the future. Load prediction can be classified into three subject areas — namely,

1.Long-range forecasting which is used to predict loads as far away as 50 years ahead in order to facilitate expansion planning.

2 Medium-range forecasting which is used to predict peak loads up to one years ahead on a weekly , monthly and annual basis such that successful operational planning can be carried out.

3. Short-range forecasting, which is used to predict loads up to a week in advance to minimize the cost of daily running and dispatch

Load Forecast

Electrical energy must be generated whenever the demand for it is present . Therefore, it is imperative that the demand on their networks should be calculated in advance for the electric power utilities . This preload estimation is commonly referred to as load forecasting . A preparation of the for-power system is important.

· The term forecast refers to expected load requirements as determined by a systematic process of identifying future loads with insufficient quantitative detail to allow important system expansion decisions to be made

· Electrical demand forecasting is a business or utility company's prediction of potential usage. Load forecasting in the deregulated economy is of critical importance to the electrical industry .

· Accurate models for electric power load forecasting are essential for a utility company's operation and planning .

· Load forecasting is a difficult task, however Firstly, as the load sequence is dynamic and has many degrees of seasonality: the load at a given hour depends not only on the load at the preceding hour, but also on the load at the same hour on the preceding day, and on the load at the same hour on the corresponding week's day of the same name.

· Planning for the expansion of power systems begins with a forecast of future load requirements.

· Predicting both demand and energy requirements is critical for efficient planning of the program .

· Forecasts of demand are used to assess power generation, transmission and distribution network changes , etc.

· Load forecasts are often used to develop procurement policies for energy-energy construction capital forecasts required to assess future fuel needs. A good forecast which represents current and future trends is, therefore, the key to all planning

· Most Western nations have initiated significant structural reforms of their energy markets over the last decade.

· The purpose of these reforms is to break up conventional regional monopolies and replace them with many generation and distribution utilities offering the selling or purchase of electricity through a Wholesale business.

· While the rules governing how different wholesale markets operate differ, it is hoped that the end result will be a fall in the price of electricity for end-users and a price that better reflects the actual costs involved.